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AUKUS shifts the regional military balance, what will China do next? 0
China has criticized the nuclear submarine deal between the US, UK and Australia (AUKUS) as tensions in the Indo-Pacific region are likely to continue to rise, an analyst at the company said.
Submarine USS North Carolina at Changi Naval Base, Singapore on April 28, 2014 (Photo: Reuters).
The regional military balance shifted
`Considering the geographical location and security risks in this area, we hope that caution will prevail,` said Ali Wyne, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, and assessed: `
The US, UK and Australia last week announced a new security partnership agreement to enhance stability in the Indo-Pacific.
As part of the agreement, the US and UK will support Australia’s development of nuclear-powered submarines, allowing the country’s navy to counter China’s nuclear ships in the region.
However, this agreement was also the source of a diplomatic crisis.
China also criticized the agreement.
Expert Wyne said there have been discussions about the `military balance of power` in the region increasingly narrowing Beijing’s advantage.
The announcement of the above security agreement comes as the Biden administration is trying to shape the US approach to China’s growing power, following the administration’s trade war.
What will China do next?
It won’t be until the 2030s that Australia’s nuclear submarine fleet will probably be used, Wyne estimates.
`I think China will increase military modernization because it wants to counter the above efforts of President Biden’s administration,` Mr. Wyne said.
This expert commented: `So the question is what can China accomplish in this decade? And what will the new fleet of nuclear ships contribute to deterrence starting from the beginning?`
Analyst Wyne also assessed that the possibility of security crises occurring in the East Sea is low.
`However, this can still increase pressure and increase the risk of miscalculation.`
Michael Klare, professor of international peace and security studies at Hampshire University, also agreed with analyst Wyne’s views.
`Tensions between the US and China have been increasing since before the above agreement. This tension is increasingly related to the issues of Taiwan and the East Sea. The US has increased its involvement in these areas and China has also responded.
`There will be tit-for-tat moves here, so all sides now have to strengthen their capabilities,` Mr. Klare commented on CNBC on September 21.