'New normal life when 30% of the population gets vaccinated' 3
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the Covid-19 pandemic has been raging on our planet for more than 17 months now.
Using mathematical logic, I would like to suggest the trend of the pandemic in the coming months.
First, let’s look at the graph trends of the two most typical countries where there are dangerous variants of the virus, as well as representing the trends of two territories, England (representing the trend in
Number of cases per day in the UK from the beginning of the epidemic until now.
Let’s observe the second peak of the epidemic when the Alpha variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was discovered in this country.
Now comes the graph of average daily cases in India (where the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was discovered):
Graph of number of cases in India.
The trend of the second epidemic peak in India is quite similar to the UK.
Looking at the trend in the broader territory, we can see that the epidemic trend in Asia is quite similar to that of India, because India accounts for 65% of the average number of cases in Asia over a long period of time.
Graph of cases in India and Asia.
If it is predicted that the number of new cases in India will be about 10,000 cases per day on August 12, 2021, the number of cases in Asia will then be about 40,000 cases.
If the trend in South America is stable (because they vaccinate quickly), it can be predicted that then (August 12, 2021), the world will witness about 80,000 new cases per day (equivalent to the number
Vaccine vaccination chart in the UK, US, Germany, France.
Based on the vaccination chart in the UK, US, Germany, and France, we can see that only 30% of people need to be vaccinated for countries to confidently begin to open up.
So, to predict when normal life will return, we can consider the number of cases per day at an acceptable level that does not overwhelm the medical infrastructure and when 30% of the world’s population has
As we know, by June 5, 2021, there were 1 billion 700 million people vaccinated worldwide (accounting for 13.7% of the population).
Let’s look at one more factor: the historic 2003-04 SARS pandemic.
Coincidentally like SARS, the Covid-19 pandemic started on December 31, 2019, and by August 12, 2021, it was 19 and a half months.
But let’s not be too happy, you see, this virus is not ordinary.
When Britain promotes herd immunity, it upsets Britain.
That is the prediction, but no matter how open it is to live with the virus, we hope that humanity will live responsibly, not only with the virus, but also with the living environment of all people.
>>The article does not necessarily coincide with VnExpress.net’s views.
